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Mathematical football predictions are the only way to succeed in football betting

Mathematical football predictions are the only way to succeed in football betting

Are you a punter? Do you understand odds? Do you understand what odds represent? Do you know how to create them?... and many more crucial sportsbook question are there to be asked. If you however failed to answer yes to last 3 questions, your success in sports betting is very unlikely.

Where to start if you want to be good at sports betting?

The answer is simple. You have to understand the theory of sports betting. You have to understand the probabilities and value bets. Don't be scared if you are not a math guru. It is not that difficult. The best way to start explaining is with a dice or even better with a coin flip. What are the chances of landing a head or a tail? Answer is simple - in both cases you have 50% chance.

Now imagine you are a bookie and want to make money on people betting on a coin flip. What would you do? The 50% chance (0.5) stands for odds 2.00 (calculated 1/0.5). If you want to make money, all you need to do is to lower the odds. Let's say you offer odds 1.9 on tails and 1.9 on head. This small shift will cause you making money - in this case on average 5% in a long term. There is no escape to it. Reality vs odds show a difference and the odds are playing to your favour. Simple as that.

Now let's apply it to the football betting. Ok, but the chances are not so obvious. Exactly! How do I calculate the odds, chances...? How does the bookie do it? The quick answer is football predictions, but there is more to it. The math in background breaks down a power of the squad, the form, the scoring potential, defense and much more. There are so many variables in the equation that it really takes a math specialist to come up with a result. But that is not it. We have asked 3 math post graduates to predict probabilities for the match between FC Liverpool and FC Barcelona. All of them had all the data they asked for but guess the result. All of them came with totally different numbers.

What is the moral of the story? Being good at math is simply not enough. You have to understand football. There are pages offering free football predictions and we advise you to consider the hard work when 2 groups of professionals get together. In this case you need experts in math and football. But still one question remains.

How do I win in football betting?

The answer is simple. You take the mentioned free football predictions and compare the odds with the odds of your bookmaker. Did you find any odds of the bookmaker significantly higher than the predicted odds? In the case you did, you found a value bet. What is it? Value bets are the bets where you have statistical advantage. Remember the example with the coin toss? Simply imagine the bookie is not giving you odds 1.9 but 2.1, while the fair odds are 2.0. In that case there is no escape to a success.

One thing at the end. Be critical to the free football predictions. Use critical thinking to any of them. Consider them just like an opinion.

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